🔗 Share this article

A mere 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as his coach berated him over missing a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was whether his displays were a symptom or the source of the side's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, though, the manager's outburst proved to be decidedly more positive. After the England international drilled in his second to restore the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their opening six matches, find themselves just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?

That’s a rather hard proposition to answer. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant this season, while the positive results have accumulated.

According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a side which has just won a ten-match winning streak, they seem weirdly vulnerable – but currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping Rogers to rescue them with two precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again against United.

The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, curled right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. Against United, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.

A statistical correction might be the biggest rival they must confront in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling his shots into the net's top corner forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is another reality whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.

• The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
• The winger might become the performer he resembled in Germany.
• The defensive duo are set to return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.

This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Savoring the Moment

However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder now would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.

This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. As Rogers faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.