A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
